The Forgotten Three Teams…Sometimes Basketball Stats Just Don’t Jive

Posted: February 28, 2017 in AVC Men's Basketball, AVC Men's BB 2016-17, Predictions, RPI, State Tournament

Its always interesting to look at the statistics of the best of the best teams…those who ended up in the Elite Eight…in the State Regional SoCal playoffs.  Three key statistics 1. RPI, 2. Coaches Final Poll, and 3. Playoff Seeding often do not agree.  Seeding and Coaches Poll look to be the furthest off…maybe its because both have lots of human based subjective methods of measurement…+especially the Coaches Poll.  The RPI is statistical evaluation done by a computer.  With that said, lets take at  the 8 teams the Coaches Final Poll guessed would be in the SoCal Elite 8 bases.

  1. Fullerton
  2. Compton
  3. Saddleback (beaten by AVC)
  4. San Bernardino (beaten by Riverside) 
  5. San Diego
  6. Citrus
  7. Mt San Jacinto (beaten by ELA)
  8. Chaffey

62.5% of the expected teams the coaches thought would make it did.  Not so good!  

In their place, three teams not ranked at all in the top 20 of the State-wide Coaches Poll;

  1. Antelope Valley College
  2. East LA
  3. Riverside

Lets take a look at the statistics for the  eight teams that actually made it to the SoCal elite 8;

Team(Alphabetical) RPI Coaches Final Poll Seeding
AVC 7 NR 14/13
Citrus 6 11 6
Chaffey 10 15 8
Compton 1 3 2
East LA 11 NR 11
Fullerton 3 2 1
Riverside 8 NR 13/14
San Diego 4 10 5

So what does this all mean?  Who knows but if you were a betting man, you would expect there would be one and possibly two upsets. 

Just a reminder, here are the four games…all at 7 p.m. on Saturday,  March 4, 2017.  The four winner head to the coveted state tournament. 

AVC Citrus
ELA Compton
Riverside San Diego
Chaffey Fullerton

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